What's Happening?
BY DANIEL W. DRAKE PUBLISHER
Heading into the fourth week in July - where has the summer gone, already?

Nantucket has enjoyed beautiful weather, good fishing and all of the other attributes of the season. Sure, there has been a bit of fog some mornings, but if memories don't play tricks, it has been nothing like some other summers. The Fourth of July weekend was spectacular and even a few stray clouds in front of the fireworks couldn't really the dampen the general enthusiasm.

So, where are the people? The tourists? The shoppers? The diners? Except for the July Fourth weekend, which seemed to be busy, substantial anecdotal evidence suggests that there haven't been as many people around before or after the holiday weekend. Certainly if the Downtown Parking Space Availability index is an indication, or the average duration of waits at certain intersections means anything (with the notable exception of a mid-day Saturday two weeks ago when the line from Five Corners on Pleasant Street stretched all the way back to Rusty's Outdoor Power Equipment), or the ease of changing car reservations on the ferry is any sort of indicator, there are fewer vehicles here than in recent summers.

My only trip to the beach this summer on a hot Sunday afternoon was to one where the parking lot was half full; unheard of in past summers. The beach seemed relatively empty - a throw back to thirty years ago. Some high-end restaurants don't seem to have the usual turnover, although others, I am told, are doing very well. The story is not so rosy for the "middle market" eateries, which rely on summer revenues to stay open to serve the island community in the winter. Many stores, with what might best be termed "discretionary" merchandise, are getting neither the traffic nor the buyers of the past. Even the number of people lollygagging in the middle of any given downtown intersection, having left their common sense on the mainland, seems down.

Statistics bear out these observations to a certain extent. Figures published by the Steamship Authority indicate passenger traffic to and from Nantucket was down seven percent in May and 10 percent in June. Interestingly, for the first three weeks of June, passenger traffic was down 13 percent but the beginning of the holiday weekend seemed to have helped improve the month overall. Car and truck traffic was down as well. Figures are not available for the privately operated ferry services.

The airport does not keep records on arriving passengers, only on those who "emplane" at ACK, although there is a probably substantial correlation between arrivals and departures.

According to airport manager Al Peterson, emplanements on scheduled flights were down four percent in May and eight percent in June compared to the prior year. However, Peterson said that this decline was pretty much offset by an increase in general aviation traffic, which includes private planes and charters. (Peterson did observe that both JetBlue and Delta had expressed satisfaction with the passenger volumes on their New York flights.)

"All right," you say. "Haven't you heard that there are all sorts of economic problems; that the price of gas has sky-rocketed? Why are you surprised that visitor traffic is down?"

Well, for one thing, for the months of May and June, Steamship passenger traffic to the Vineyard was up - not much, but it was up. We have to ask ourselves why?

For another thing, in late winter, we were told that house rentals were running 35-40 percent ahead of last year. Have things changed since then? Are those people actually here? Once they got here, if they did, are they hunkering down in their houses, having gotten wind of the price of a gallon of gas or the cost of a meal? One bright spot does seem to be the food markets, so perhaps the renters are eating, just not at restaurants.

A couple of years ago, we wrote of the need for business and government to join in developing a marketing plan for Nantucket. The story then was much as it is today, only without the national economic overtones. Nantucket was pricing itself out of the tourist market for the middle class. Only the very wealthy could afford to come here and as much as they do for the island, such people cannot by themselves sustain the tourist economy. The other end of the tourism spectrum was the demographic best described as those who drop in for the day, buy a sandwich, perhaps a couple of T-shirts and some gewgaws and then head off for somewhere else. The current state of the national economy has only exacerbated the problem.

The implications for Nantucket are even more serious than they were two years ago. We probably are not too far from the $500 roundtrip ticket for the visitor to get his or her car over and back. At what point does that become an obstacle - real or psychological? The increased cost of goods and services resulting from higher transportation costs will put Nantucket at a greater competitive disadvantage. Should the numbers of visitors diminish, the providers of transportation to and from the island will have to cut back on the services, which in recent years, have made the island so accessible. (Who noticed that the MV Nantucket was not on the run right after Memorial Day until the third week in June, even though, in past years, full service of six round trips a day began in the middle of May?)

The people who come to the island for two or three days to a week or more are those who really support the tourist economy. We need to figure out how to ensure that they keep coming and spending.

The Chamber of Commerce is the logical organization to lead the charge to ensure that Nantucket remains a tourist magnet. The effort will require the will to battle the pervasive inertia and a fair amount of original thinking. (One reason that Cape Air's fleet is stretched to the limit is that the airline has entered into contracts for subsidized service to communities in Vermont, upstate New York and Indiana.) The effort will also require a willingness and ability to enlist government and real estate interests in the process. (Won't healthy retailers provide a better return over time than those who struggle to pay the rent each month and, therefore, cannot invest adequately in inventory and marketing?)

No doubt other places are suffering this season too, but Nantucket's issues are more systemic than most. When the economy is back on its feet, people will be use to paying high fuel prices. But will they be willing to pay the Nantucket premium on top of that? It seems less and less likely unless they continue to perceive that the premium is warranted and, in return, provides value.

The summer is flying by. Time is a-wasting. It may be too strong a statement to say yet, that the world is starting to pass Nantucket by, but let's take steps to make sure it doesn't happen.

The "Lighthouse Keeper" reflects the views of the author and does not necessarily represent the editorial position of The Nantucket Independent. Please send any ideas or comments to drake@ nantucketindependent.com. I