ARE TOUGHER TIMES AHEAD?
What powerful radar do dogs possess that saves them from stepping in their own, shall we say, stuff? I have been observing this phenomenon very closely of late because our occasional doggie houseguest, Brinkley, must be walked on a leash. Regardless of the spot he picks to do his business, sometimes in terrain requiring the fanciest of footwork to extricate himself, he sidesteps, hops and dances away to emerge with four clean feet.

Clean feet are a welcome outcome and I wish I were as confident that the fancy footwork to tweak this, amend that or boost these will ultimately result in us being able to emerge with clean feet from our current economic challenges. Every day the media regurgitates the tragic slide of our housing and sub-prime mortgage markets, the spiraling price of oil, problematic immigration issues and the increasing dearth of jobs, which ultimately trickle down to affect us all, whether as business owners or consumers.

This year on our little island we share, once again, concerns about the lack of available workers to service many of our businesses for the upcoming season. While importing help is not a direct issue for my business, the ancillary effects of a reduced experience for tourists and island residents will be detrimental to us all.

What does have a huge direct impact on me is the whopping upward climb of the price of oil and fuel. After all, I'm not dealing in thimbles or feather pillows. I'm dealing in feed, hundreds of pounds each week, which must be delivered to my local conveyor on the mainland, then ferried over to my shop. For several months, we have been experiencing rapidly escalating fuel surcharges, now approaching 25 percent, on every order.

Top off the increased cost of getting goods to the island with the traditional price increases levied by the pet food industry in the first quarter, exacerbated this year by the backlash from the massive canned pet food recall last year as manufacturers scramble to make up lost revenues, and the specialty pet food market can get a little costly. It was just brought to my attention that the price of one formula, which we haven't reordered in a while, will jump a substantial $7.00 a bag.

Up until now, the pet industry has been considered recession-resistant, consistently showing amazing growth in both sales and in product development. However, for the first time in my memory, the pundits are cautious in their predictions for this upcoming year. Consumer spending represents 70 percent of the economic viability of this country, and the analysis of holiday spending showed a sluggish increase of just 3 percent, the slowest growth rate since 2002. Therefore, retail sales forecasts for 2008, excluding automobile, gas station and restaurant sales, are projected to increase just 3.5 percent over last year as consumers are expected to be more conservative in spending, preferring to pay down debt and moderating their discretionary spending.

The good news for me is that a recent national survey showed pet owners are more likely to cut back on their own monthly expenses for items such as electronics, entertainment, household goods and clothing, than they were likely to cut spending on care or supplies for their pets. Although 64 percent indicated the economy has not yet affected their decisions regarding pet care, when pushed to disclose what they would cut out if financial hardships led to reduced spending, pet owners were most likely to cut back on pet luxuries, such as toys and pet fashions, followed by professional pet care such as day care and dog walkers and professional grooming. Close to the bottom of the list were cutting out name brand pet foods, veterinary visits and preventive medications.

And more good news is that there are three factors which should continue to create a dynamic for the pet supply industry. First are the consumer demographics which continue to drive the upper end of the pet products market, i.e., empty nesters, single and adult households with no children with expendable income for whom pets fill an essential niche for companionship and nurturing opportunities. The second is in the increased emphasis on product enhancements for natural pet products. Clearly, a bag of pet food that is natural or organic and tops out at $50.00 or more per bag is not for everyone, but there is increasing awareness of and interest in this "green" premium segment of the pet food market. Finally, pet supplements and nutraceuticals, treats containing supplements or botanicals designed to address specific health conditions, are on the rise as we tend to the needs of our increasing population of aging and overweight pets.

And so, I am cautiously optimistic as we prepare for the season ahead. I hope that we can all land on our feet, and with clean feet at that.

Jan Jaeger is owner of Geronimo's, Ltd., Nantucket's pet supply and gift shop, and is a member of DWAA and CWA (Dog and Cat Writer's Associations of America). Her pets at home are Junior, a Chesapeake Bay Retriever and two cats. At the shop are the cats, Messrs. Fish and Chips, Flower bunny, Willie guinea pig and two budgies. Send e-mail to

jan@geronimos.com. I