THE REAL ESTATE REPORT
with Robert Ranney

"Recession is when a neighbor loses his job. Depression is when you lose yours."

- Ronald Reagan Well, recession, depression or somewhere in between, everything is relative. Typically, January is a strong month in Nantucket real estate. January 2008 was no exception - relatively speaking.

In January 2008, there were 31 total transactions worth a total of approximately $69 million. By comparison, in January 2007 there were 40 total transactions worth approximately $79 million. The number of transactions (all sales) was down about 23 percent compared to January 2007 and the total dollar volume of those transactions was down about 13 percent from January 2007. The average home sale in 2008 (this is where it gets interesting) was $3.4 million a huge jump of about 52 percent from the average home sale in 2007, while the median home sale in January was $2.75 million, another huge jump of about 76 percent from the median home sale in 2007.

In January 2008, there were 15 homes sold with a total dollar volume of about $51 million. In January 2007, there were 28 homes sold for a total of about $72 million.

In January 2008, there were a total of three vacant lot sales with an average sale price of $1.37 million (there were four vacant lot sales in January 2007, with an average sale price of $1.287 million).

In January 2008, there were two commercial sales. There were five altogether in 2007.

In 2007 there were only 127 new single-family building permits issued. the slowest year since 1990 and 1991, when 112 and 114 permits, respectively, were issued. Three permits were issued in January 2008.

According to Nantucket's versions of multiple property listing services, there are approximately 500 listings of properties for sale (houses, condos, vacant lots, etc). Prices range from $275,000 for a condo unit near the airport, to $19.75 million for a waterfront property in Squam. The average sale in January 2008 took place at about 78 percent of its asking price and average time on the market averaged about 15 months. With time on the market increasing and sales price to listing price ratios declining, these statistics alone combine to indicate a slow or slowing market.

January 2008 was quite strong in average home price relatively speaking, perhaps a good sign for the market, but don't get your hopes up just yet. When compared to each other Januaries can be a prophetic statistic for Nantucket real estate: January 2004 was stronger than January 2003 and January 2005 was stronger than January 2004. Both 2004 and 2005, then, were stronger than their respective preceding years. January 2006 was weaker than January 2005 and 2006 ended weaker than 2005. January 2007 was weaker than January 2006 and 2007 was a slower year than 2006. January 2008 was

weaker than January 2007. I

- A student of the current real estate market, and a licensed real estate salesperson since 1987, Rob Ranney has been performing real estate appraisals with Denby Real Estate, Inc. since 1996.