Climate change on Nantucket:
Hyperbole or genuine threat
Islanders are talking about the 21st century's biggest whodunit

This image shows the incremental record of global average temperatures as compiled by the Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia and the Hadley Centre of the UK Meteorological Office.

First in a Series

This week, The Independent begins an investigative series on how climate change is altering our lives and the island environment. Throughout this series, we will explore the impacts on Nantucket and how islanders are affecting change at the local level. We encourage our readers to respond to each installment with comments and critiques as we explore Nantucket's ties to global warming. Last Saturday night, nearly 100 islanders packed into the Great Hall in the Nantucket Atheneum to watch a documentary film on local economics entitled "Independent America: The Two Lane Search for Mom and Pop."

Though the storyline of independent busi- nesses going up against big box chain stores rang loudest for those in the audience struggling to keep Nantucket's commercial climate unique and our dollars on this side of the Sound, an underlying theme of world climate stabilization is easily discernible from this film and its sponsor, Sustainable Nantucket's Think Local - Buy Local - Hire Local campaign.

That such a diverse sampling of Nantucketers came out on a balmy mid-January night to learn how other cities and towns across the U. S. are handling the invasion of the likes of Starbuck's Coffee and Wal-Mart - whether inferred or perceived - speaks to a growing collective feeling on weatherpattern changes on both sides of the issue.

It lobbies, albeit indirectly, on the topic of global warming because buying and hiring locally equals less fuel consumption by islanders than ordering products from off island, traveling to bigbox stores on the mainland, buying food from away and hiring off island workers who must commute daily to Nantucket.

People on both sides of the climate change argument agree that global warming is occurring. But the rift between believers and skeptics now lies in the how and the why of this accelerating planetary dynamic.

This figure shows the disparity in fossil fuel consumption per capita for the countries with the 20 largest populations. The large range of variation is indicative of the separation between the rich, industrialized nations and the poor/developing nations. The global average is also shown.

"Oceans have been rising since the end of the ice age, but very, very slowly," said outspoken trucker and Yates Gas serviceman Nat Lowell, who admits global warming is occurring but disputes its connection to humans. "Ice sheets have been breaking off for a long time, nothing new.

"Overall, the pollution issue is really tied into global warming because the public doesn't realize how clean our planet is. Is C02 really pollution? We learned it was good for plants when we were growing up."

Too much carbon dioxide is the problem, according to scientists around the world like chemist Sarah Oktay, director of the UMass Boston Nantucket Field Station. Can she and other island naturalists definitively explain hordes of tropical fish in our waters during the summer, the appearance of new bird species on island and 60-degree days in November and December? No. No one can beyond a doubt, but they can point to the massive, growing body of research by the world's scientific community and conclusions that lean more towards humans than natural cycles.

This figure shows an estimate of how efficiently the world's 20 largest economies convert fossil fuel usage into wealth as expressed by the ratio of their gross domestic product (in US dollars) over the number of kilograms of fossil fuel carbon released into the atmosphere each year. The two countries that produce the highest GDP per kilogram carbon, Brazil and France, are heavily reliant on alternative energy sources, hydroelectric and nuclear power respectively.

"I believe that it's going to be affecting our planet, that our input as humans, burning fossil fuels and producing methane, has exasperated it and I believe we need to start now and try to alleviate it by reducing levels of C02 emissions," said Oktay. "It's something we can't put off. Even if we stopped it tomorrow it would still have adverse effects on our climate and it will end up costing society a lot of money."

Sea level rise during the last century as recorded at 23 geologically stable tide gauge stations, and for the last 15 years through satellite observations.

On Nantucket, that translates into all sorts of potential impacts. Among the more serious of these are rising sea levels threatening waterfront properties and the downtown area, shifting seasons that may already be altering our tourist economy, and the survival of island wildlife.

"In the time I've been observing birds on Nantucket, there's been some major changes," said island bird expert Edie Ray. "Clearly, something is changing for some reason. Whether we're going to head into an ice age, I don't know, but things have changed."

How will Nantucket deal with the effects of natural or manmade climate change? Will we continue to cop the attitude that we are safe from the ills of the mainland 30 miles at sea? Or will island citizens effect progressive change?

RUNNING ON ISLAND POWER

A gallon of unleaded gasoline costs just a few cents under $3 on the island, having dropped around 25¢ just after New Year's Day.

This figure shows the Antarctic temperature changes during the last several glacial/interglacial cycles of the present ice age and a comparison to changes in global ice volume. The present day is on the right.

Does this mean Nantucketers should roar into island gas stations, fill up and tear around the island at top speed, ditching conservation measures such as carpooling, combining errands, walking and cycling more, and all other energy-saving ideas? Probably not.

On the contrary, despite oil prices at around $55 a barrel, the lowest cost in two-and-a-half years, the fuel-efficient, save-the-planet cognoscenti are not letting up. Witness the Energy Study Committee's proposed Town Meeting article to mandate that asks the town to invest in fuel-efficient vehicles for its fleet. Take note of the number of hybrid vehicles driving around the island, Ford Escapes and Toyota Prius'es mostly. And listen in on Nantucket Builders Association meetings where the banter these days is about building energy-efficient homes using green building materials.

Atmospheric CO2 concentrations measured at Mauna Loa Observatory.

However, the road to energy salvation remains rocky for Nantucket, as 66 percent of the voters during the 2005 town elections said no to wind turbines in Nantucket Sound on non-binding Question 8.

Also, Nantucket is not yet on the list of Bay State cities and towns - now at 14 - that have ratified the Kyoto Protocol and signed the U.S. Mayors Climate Protection Agreement. Town Administrator Libby Gibson said the action is not one of the Board of Selectmen's goals.

But there is hope for the Grey Lady. Energy Study Committee members Robert Schwarzenback and Barbara Gookin are pursuing a comprehensive energy plan for the island that would, among other projects, encourage and monitor energy production at the landfill and get the town to take an active role requiring green construction.

"We're trying to keep tabs on what's happening on the Cape," said Energy Study Committee Chairman and Transportation Planner Michael Burns. "There's a Cape Cod renewable fuels partnership and what they're trying to do is get each town on the Cape to ratify the U.S. Mayors Climate Protection Agreement."

This figure shows the change in average thickness of mountain glaciers around the world. This information, known as the glaciological mass balance, is found by measuring the annual snow accumulation and subtracting surface ablation driven by melting, sublimation, or wind erosion.

FOG IN JANUARY

More so than other places, Nantucketers are in tune with the weather because of how it affects island living. We regularly check the Weather Channel and track weather forecasts online for ferry travel probabilities, erosion intensity, school athletics, what to wear each day and beach and boating conditions.

Additionally, we are bombarded with multimedia information on global warming from Al Gore's foreboding tome and movie documentary, "An Inconvenient Truth," to weather disaster shows and movies, to climate change books seemingly coming out every week. How are we to know which side of the issue is correct? When in doubt, err on the side of science, believes Nantucketer Maurice Gibbs, a former commander in the U. S. Navy and a retired meteorologist and oceanographer.

Sea levels over the last 150,000 years.

"Yes, over the last century there has been global warming, however, we're talking about something on the order of 1.1 to 1.2 degrees Fahrenheit, so scientifically it is happening, if you want to use that word," said Gibbs. "Secondly, I am one of those who is skeptical as to how much of that would have occurred had man not been on the planet and how much not. I'm one of those that's not convinced that we are the principal cause. Having said that, the most important caveat is that it still makes no sense to be putting bad things into our atmosphere and our oceans."

Regardless of which camp one is in, islanders are experiencing some strange times in the natural world.

December of 2006 was the second warmest on record (records have been kept since 1895). Nationally, 2006 was the warmest year on record. The month of June over the last three years has felt more like April, and late summer weather has lasted well into October

Deep ocean temperatures over the last 100 million years. Note, the ancient past is to the right on this graph. One can see how the Earth has cooled throughout the Cenozoic Era, which began 65 million years ago.

Deadly man-of-war jellyfish washed up on our shores last summer, while thousands of tropical fish found their way into the harbors and Nantucket Sound. Also, species of birds not known to Nantucket were spotted during the recent Christmas Bird Count, while others that are typically abundant were scarce.

"Sanderlings: one of the concerns is that where they breed in the north is changing," said Ray. "Green plants are growing where they nest in the dirt, so they don't have a place to nest, so we're not seeing as many in the winter.

"The Carolina wren: to see a Carolina wren years ago was huge. [Now], we are at the northern edge of their ability to overwinter."

Proving one argument unequivocally over the other is not likely. What could help clarify both positions and sharpen the focus is the anticipated release of the Fourth Assessment Report from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) sometime in February. This report, last released as the Third Assessment Report in 2001, is the definitive report card on climate change to date.

SUSTAINING NANTUCKET

Accepting climate change is a big step for most islanders. The next step is living with it. If predictions are correct and sea levels rise as much as six to 12 feet between 2050 and 2100, as Oktay believes they will either from human activities or the earth's, much of what we know as coastal Nantucket will be under water.

That means Great Point becomes a sandbar if not an island at low tide, the barrier beaches of Smith's and Eel Points, along with Coatue and the Haulover could disappear, all exposing the now protected parts of Nantucket to the open ocean and Nantucket Sound. Planning for even the most conservative estimate of sea level rise of these magnitudes quickly takes precedence over other longrange goals such as bike paths and zoning changes.

Signs of this "water world" are already appearing, manifesting themselves through insurance companies doubling and tripling their rates for coastal properties, and in many cases, not insuring them at all.

In reporter Linda Tucci's Dec. 17, 2006 story in the Boston Globe, "Coastal living will likely carry a heftier premium," Francis Mancini, president of the Massachusetts Association of Insurance Agents, said that this shift is manifesting itself up and down the coast.

"It's becoming very, very widespread," said Mancini. "And it's not just the coast anymore. It's moving further and further inland."

Which is what Nantucketers may be doing sooner than later.

Although not having an impact attributable to climate change on island crops yet, it is also likely to eventually impact growing seasons on the island's farms.

"As far as the weather, I haven't noticed it in my lifetime," said Moors End Farm owner Steve Slosek.

Conceding that the agricultural community is abuzz with talk of global warming effects through trade magazines, Slosek admitted it would be nice to add avocados to his farm produce stand off Polpis Road.

ADAPT, IMPROVISE AND OVERCOME

Nantucketers who have made up their minds on either side of the climate change issue are talking about its existence, the impacts on their lives - present and future - and potential adaptations to what is certainly going to change how we live on the island.

See for yourself with Sustainable Nantucket's Think Local - Buy Local - Hire Local effort highlighted by a series of films being shown throughout this winter designed to bring awareness to the concept of on island self-sufficiency.

Provincetown Town Manager Keith Bergman, one of 1,000 people Gore trained to give his Inconvenient Truth presentation, spoke at the Field Station on Dec. 6, 2006.

Talk of combating climate change is growing on this island and in some of the most unlikely places. Architect Rebecca Anderson of Milton Rowland & Associates, who is seeking her Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design certification (LEED) from the U.S. Green Building Council, is helping to get the green movement going on Nantucket. Speaking to a group of about 25 members of the Nantucket Builders Association on Jan. 10, Anderson said that the desire among the building community to build smart, energy-efficient, low-impact structures is strengthening on Nantucket.

"On Nantucket, we're pushing the ball," said Anderson. "I wouldn't say the ball is rolling, at least in my office, [but] I think it's prime to. It's something that's exploding across the country and Nantucket has 10 more reasons to do it, including energy costs, septic systems, an overflowing dump. ..."

"And we're already building these high-end durable homes, so there's really no reason we can't make them energy efficient to the extreme, and healthful, and low

impact." I

Next week: Energy consumption.